After the publishing of the investigation entitled “The Colombian-Venezuelan guerrillas: the migration of the war from Colombia to Venezuela”, prepared by Insight Crime (IC), an organization dedicated to studying organized crime, Jeremy Mc Dermott co-founder of IC during an interview with La Patilla revealed the results of this detailed study of irregular armed groups in Venezuela.
By La Patilla
Oct 10, 2022
Mr. Mc Dermott affirms that the ELN is a criminal group that became established in the country because it is protected by Nicolás Maduro’s Chavista regime. The ELN is taking root in the country, recruiting Venezuelans into its ranks, building support networks in the towns, and establishing itself as de facto authorities in Venezuelan communities.
“Currently the strategy of “Pablito in Venezuela” has served as a model for an expansion campaign that has made the ELN the most powerful criminal actor in the border region and a key ally of the Venezuelan State,” explains the co-founder of IC .
On the other hand, how did Venezuela become the cemetery of the leadership of the ex-FARC? A little over a year ago, four of their commanders were killed “mysteriously” in Venezuela and one was wounded.
The IC study reveals how the ELN controls a drug trafficking corridor that connects one of the most important cocaine production areas in Colombia with one of the busiest international drug shipping points in Venezuela.
“Their expansion along the border has placed this guerrilla group as the guardian of the trafficking routes used to move some 250 tons of cocaine a year. The leaders of this group continue to insist that the ELN is not involved in drug trafficking, but thanks to Venezuela they have the potential to become one of the most powerful drug trafficking organizations in Colombia,” he highlights.
-Taking into account that the new IC study considers that currently binational groups operate on the Colombian-Venezuelan border and pose a binational security threat, and the ELN is a guerrilla group, not an armed insurgency (in Venezuela) while in Colombia they fight against the government. What is IC’s assessment of the reopening of the border ordered by Maduro and Petro on September 26th, 2022. Is a peace agreement possible?
We believe that the ELN is a Colombian-Venezuelan guerrilla group, because we trace its presence in more than 40 Venezuelan municipalities in eight states.
Up to 40% of ELN troops in Latin America are temporarily in Venezuela where some war fronts operate, such as the Eastern War Front, both in Venezuela and Colombia, because Venezuelans and Colombians are part of it. That is why we consider the ELN as a binational group.
While in Colombia the ELN is an insurgent group, in Venezuela it is a paramilitary group, because it works in favor of Nicolás Maduro’s government, particularly in states such as Zulia, Amazonas, Apure and Bolívar. There is open cooperation between the Chavista regime and the ELN.
We see as positive the rapprochement between the governments of Colombia and Venezuela after four years of estrangement with the government of Iván Duque, which was openly against Maduro, and did not obtain anything in this regard. On the contrary, the closure of the border gave vitality to the trails and encouraged contraband that feeds the two irregular groups on either side of the border.
Regarding the peace agreement, we can mention that President Gustavo Petro has said that total peace is one of the priorities of his government. He is willing to dialogue with the criminal groups that generate violence within Colombia. After the peace agreement in 2016 between the Government of Colombia and the FARC, the peace of Colombia has to go through that of Venezuela.
It is very difficult to negotiate with the ELN, because it is not a group like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which has its secretariat and its structure is more vertical, while that of the ELN is more horizontal.
This group is dominated by “war fronts” and by the ELN units. The power of the ELN is not in a secretariat as that of the FARC. A negotiation with the ELN is going to be a little more complex. If a peace agreement is reached, the question is: What percentage of the ELN is going to go into the process? Will the members of the FARC, present in Venezuela, join said agreement? That question can only be answered when the dialogue develops.
-What is the social repercussion of the presence and control of the guerrilla in the border states, especially in Apure, after the armed conflict between the ELN mafias and the ex-FARC?
In Apure State a conflict developed, this year and the last, exported from Colombia to Venezuela. A war broke out between the Second Marquetalia (front) and Gentil Duarte’s Tenth Front.
This was the first time there were sustained battles between the Venezuelan military and Colombian irregular armed groups. This generated selective assassinations, explosions, massive displacements, as we have seen in Colombia during the last 40 years. It is clear that the (Venezuelan) military works with the ELN, because we detected on the ground how they allied to expel the FARC from Venezuelan territory.
In Apure, one of the strongholds of the ELN, there is no doubt of that today, after the armed clashes in Venezuela, there is greater social control through the militias and political work, which work for the local government, and where the alias “Pablito” acts with the blessing of the Venezuelan government and not as the opposition to the Colombian government in Arauca.
-In your opinion, will the reopening of the Colombian-Venezuelan border in Apure bring about greater conflict on the Venezuelan side or, on the contrary, will it allow the military and guerrilla leaders to establish new coexistence agreements to continue carrying out illegal activities (drug trafficking, smuggling, human trafficking, extortion)?
The violence is going to decrease, because it combines illegal economies, such as smuggling that has supported groups across the border. Irregular groups act on the border under the control of state forces. But we must remember that control of the border, whether closed or open, is in the hands of actors like the ELN, especially in Apure.
– Based on this idea that the ELN has positioned itself as the guardian of the drug trafficking routes used to move some 250 tons of cocaine a year through Venezuela, guards illicit drug crops, please elaborate on the process of expansion of this guerrilla group in the border states of Venezuela.
The axis of drug trafficking operates in the Catatumbo region, located to the Northwest of the Department of Santander in Colombia, in the south of Zulia and part of Táchira in Venezuela, . Undoubtedly, the role of the ELN after its victory in the Catatumbo region on the Colombian side, has made it the group that controls the production of 250 tons of cocaine each year. Its role in drug trafficking is going to increase. The question is: how is it going to affect drug trafficking and violence in Venezuela?
In Zulia there are coca crops, there are laboratories that produce cocaine and landing strips. In our investigation we detected that drug trafficking in Venezuela is going to continue and we believe that the ELN is going to have a more preponderant role in this business.
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